GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Oct 27, 2019

Not the Current Forecast

This is Ian Hoyer with pre-season avalanche, weather and event information for the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center on Sunday, October 27th. This information is sponsored by Spark R&D and Yellowstone Arctic Yamaha.

Mountain Weather

Since Friday evening 5-8” of new snow has accumulated near Bozeman and Cooke City with around 3” near Big Sky and West Yellowstone. This morning, temperatures are in the single digits above and below 0 F. Winds are light out of the north and northwest. Today, temperatures will only rise into the teens F. Winds will increase slightly and shift more westerly. Expect increasing clouds today, with snowfall beginning tomorrow. 2-5” will accumulate by Tuesday morning. The rest of the week will be dry.

We will update our Weather Log and Regional Conditions every morning with snowfall totals, and our Avalanche Activity list if we get a report.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

All Regions

While it’s not even Halloween yet, it is sure feeling like winter. Snow coverage is improving with 1-3 ft of settled snow in the mountains and a layered snowpack beginning to develop. Whether you’re enjoying the opening weekend of rifle season, sneaking in some early season turns, or seeking out ice to climb, you need to be thinking about avalanches and choosing your terrain carefully. Give the early season snow the respect it deserves, avalanche accidents and fatalities can and have happened in October (accident report).

With each snowfall the snowpack is getting more complex: this weekend’s snow is sitting on last weekend’s settled snow, which in some areas is sitting on snow that fell earlier in the month. Over the last few days we’ve gotten reports of snow at the ground becoming weak and faceted with unstable test results in the Bridgers and Hyalite, and an avalanche that broke near the ground in the southern Madison Range (details). It’s still early season, so we don’t yet have a great handle on the distribution of these weak layers, or know how reactive they will be. This uncertainty merits additional caution. Before getting on a steep slope dig down to find out what’s lurking beneath your feet, then drop us a line when you get home so we can share what you’ve found with the rest of the community. We’re reaching a nasty time when there is enough snow to create a larger avalanche but many rocks and other obstacles are still not buried so the consequences of getting caught in any slide, regardless of size, will be high.

Skiers yesterday at Bridger triggered small avalanches within the new snow (photo). This is a good reminder that although it may feel safe because the terrain is so familiar, while the ski area is closed there is no avalanche mitigation occurring and backcountry avalanche conditions exist.

We are preparing for winter, setting up weather stations and beginning to collect snowpack information. If you have avalanche, snowpack or weather observations to share, please submit them via our website, email (mtavalanche@gmail.com), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out and plan to attend one or two: Events and Education Calendar.

BOZEMAN

6 November, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7pm @ REI Bozeman.

7 November, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7pm @ Langford Hall, MSU.

12 November, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7pm @ Montana Ski Tuning and Boot Fitters.

14 November, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7pm @ South Hedges Hall, MSU.

14 November, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7pm @ Uphill Pursuits.

20 November, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7pm @ The Mountain Project.

4 & 5 December, Introduction to Avalanche w/ Field Course, Evenings of December 4 & 5 plus one field day either December 7, 8 or 14. Snowmobile specific field day offered December 14. More info and Register Here.

HELENA

6 November, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7pm @ The Base Camp in Helena.

BILLINGS

19 November, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7pm @ The Base Camp in Billings.

The Last Word

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out and plan to attend one or two: Events and Education Calendar.

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