23-24

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Feb 28, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Dangerous avalanche conditions exist throughout our forecast area. Around Cooke City and in the southern Madison and southern Gallatin Ranges there was enough new snow Sunday and Monday to issue Avalanche Warnings. The other areas also got snow and strong westerly wind which picked up again last night and is predicted to continue. New snow and wind creates thick drifts which can be easily triggered. This was our main concern as we rode around Taylor Fork yesterday (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31041"><span><span><span><strong><span…; and </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/IEE7EHJTjRo?feature=share"><span><span><span…;

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Since Sunday, Cooke City got 20” of snow while 8-12” fell everywhere else. This new snow is ammunition for the wind to build thick drifts. These winds are blowing at </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><em><span>all elevations</span></em></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>, not just ridgelines. We saw scoured sub-ridges on Skyline Ridge by Cabin Creek yesterday. These are indicative that gullies and lower slopes are also being loaded. Alex snapped a picture of a large recent avalanche north of Cooke City on Scotch Bonnet that was heavily wind-loaded (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31043"><span><span><span><strong><span…;).</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>As far as the snowpack is concerned, it’s still snowing out because the wind continues to load slopes. As Alex points out in his </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTcr7DstJ9Y"><span><span><span><strong>…; from Cooke City, the snowpack is the weakest he’s ever seen. All other mountain ranges in our forecast area have a similar theme: a weak and unstable snowpack is getting an additional load of windblown snow.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Triggering large avalanches 2-4 feet deep remains likely, wind-loaded or not. It may be difficult to assess exactly where the wind-loads are, so treat all slopes suspiciously. Staying out of avalanche terrain is a wise move. In the last 5 days there have been avalanches in Cooke City, Taylor Fork, Lionhead and around Big Sky (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/weather/wx-avalanche-log"><span><span><span…;). Recent avalanches are the #1 sign slopes are unstable.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all slopes in our forecast area.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

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Storm Slab Avalanche Sage Basin

Taylor Fork
Southern Madison
Code
SS-N-R1-D1-I
Elevation
9100
Aspect
N
Latitude
45.06070
Longitude
-111.27200
Notes

We noted a relatively small storm slab avalanche the failed on the wall of Sage Basin. 

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
1
D size
1
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Problem Type
New Snow
Slab Thickness
12.0 inches
Vertical Fall
75ft
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Avalanches North of Cooke City

COOKE CITY
Cooke City
Code
N
Latitude
45.02020
Longitude
-109.93800
Notes

From email: "We didn't see any avalanches on E Henderson or E Sheep with decent vis on the ride in. One large avalanche on a heavily wind loaded slope below a huge cornice north of Scotch Bonnet. That one looked like it broke deeper/in the old snow, about 100' wide. Also saw one wind slab on a small slope north of Long Lake. 14-16" deep, 20' wide, and within the fresh wind slab. "

Number of slides
2
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Trigger
Natural trigger
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Cooke City Observations 02/27

Date
Activity
Skiing
Snowmobiling

From email: "We didn't see any avalanches on E Henderson or E Sheep with decent vis on the ride in. One large avalanche on a heavily wind loaded slope below a huge cornice north of Scotch Bonnet. That one looked like it broke deeper/in the old snow, about 100' wide. Also saw one wind slab on a small slope north of Long Lake. 14-16" deep, 20' wide, and within the fresh wind slab. "

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
COOKE CITY
Observer Name
Nina Hance

New Snow and Wind in Taylor Fork

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

We rode up Taylor Fork around Skyline Ridge towards Cabin Creek. We found 12" of new snow had fallen over the last 24 hours. With poor visibility, we were unable to see any recent avalanche activity except for a small recent avalanche that happened near Beaver Slide. This was right next to a much larger slide that Doug and Ian had seen on 02/14/2024. While riding back we had a good view of the backside of Skyline Ridge above us and again saw no recent avalanche activity. However, many slopes had been stripped by recent winds. Strong winds and a foot of new snow that fell onto a weak snowpack kept us off of and out from underneath steep slopes, and recent snow made for pleasant riding conditions. 

Region
Southern Madison
Location (from list)
Taylor Fork
Observer Name
Zach Peterson